Who funds whom across the AI compute chain, and how much of that money comes back.
- Interactive map: AI Deals Map.htm. Opens in your browser. Hover a company or arrow for details, click an arrow to open its source, filter by deal type, status and year. To see one company’s deals, pick it in the Company dropdown or click its bubble (click again to remove; pick several to combine). The side panel then switches to that company: what it pays and receives, deals by counterparty, its 10-Q commitments if it is a hyperscaler, and every loop where its money comes back to it within 3 steps (hover a loop to trace it, including legs outside the filter). Add
?company=OpenAI(or?company=Nvidia,OpenAI) to the URL to open with the filter set. - Data: AI Deals Ledger.xlsx, with tabs for Deals, Companies, Nvidia Exposure, Hyperscaler Commitments and Summary. Each deal row has a Filing check column.
- Update: add rows to the ledger (and the new quarter to Nvidia Exposure and Hyperscaler Commitments after each 10-Q), then run
python scripts/ai_deals_map.py.
Snapshot as of 2026-11-12: 76 deals, 28 companies. The HTML file is the live version.
Filing verification (2026-11-12)
Every row was checked against the counterparties’ own filings: the Anthropic S-1/A No.2, the Nvidia 10-K and 10-Q, the hyperscaler 10-Qs, AMD 8-Ks, CoreWeave 8-Ks and 10-Qs, Nebius 6-Ks, IREN, TeraWulf and Cipher 8-Ks, and the Cerebras 424B4.
| Result | Rows |
|---|---|
| Confirmed | 36 |
| Corrected | 9 |
| Partly confirmed | 5 |
| Category only (Nvidia reports Hyperscale as a segment, not by customer) | 6 |
| Not in filings: press or announcement only | 13 |
| Not checkable (private, non-SEC filer) | 3 |
| Superseded | 3 |
| Not re-checked (Hugging Face) | 1 |
Corrections
| Deal | Was | Now | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic → Microsoft (Azure) | $30B | $47.2B minimum, up to $49.2B, Nov 2026 to Jun 2033 | ANT S-1 |
| Anthropic → Google Cloud | undisclosed | $121.3B minimum, Apr 2026 to Jul 2033, plus $125B to $150B of further TPU compute | ANT S-1 |
| Anthropic → Amazon (AWS) | $100B | $110B minimum, May 2026 to Apr 2036 | ANT S-1 |
| Anthropic → Broadcom | $21B hardware | $161.2B of five-year TPU equipment leases (rent excl. interest) | ANT S-1 |
| Anthropic → AMD | undisclosed | over $20B expected for the first tranche | ANT S-1 |
| Nvidia → Groq | $20B | $17.0B ($13.0B paid + $4B deferred), a licence, no equity | NVDA 10-K |
| Microsoft → OpenAI | ~27% | ~24% as-converted; $13.0B funding commitment | MSFT 10-Q |
| OpenAI → Cerebras | $10B | more than $20B, 750 MW | CBRS 424B4 |
| Fluidstack → TeraWulf | undisclosed | $6.7B, 360 MW | WULF 8-K |
Amazon’s $25B into Anthropic was nearly cut to $20B from the S-1, which shows only a $15B facility. Amazon’s 10-Q shows the full picture: $5B Series G, plus $5B Series H drawn from a $20B facility, leaving $15B. $25B stands. Nebius’ $2B Nvidia warrants were redated to 2026-03-11.
Added from filings (14 deals):
- Anthropic’s other compute: SpaceXAI up to $120.5B (Nvidia GPUs, ~$3.1B a month from Dec 2026), Nscale $44.6B, Lambda $41.3B ($34.9B of it currently terminable), TeraWulf lease ~$19B / 401 MW.
- Anthropic’s other funders: Google $30B ($10B Series G-2, $10B at IPO, $10B undrawn), Broadcom $42B note facility to fund rent on its own equipment plus $1.0B at IPO, Micron $1.0B and TSMC $0.5B at IPO.
- Google backstops Anthropic’s TeraWulf leases (Nov 2026).
- Meta: a second CoreWeave order of up to $21.0B; an AMD deal for up to 6 GW with a 160M-share AMD warrant, a copy of the OpenAI structure.
- OpenAI lends Cerebras $1.0B and holds warrants on ~33M Cerebras shares.
What gets disclosed where
| Who | What their filings show | What they don’t show | Where the rest comes from |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | Supply commitments, guarantees ($108.5B), AI cloud agreements, third-party leases, 2 customers at 36% of revenue | Which customers, which investments (OpenAI isn’t named) beyond the SB Energy guarantee | IR decks and press releases name the big ones |
| Hyperscalers | Named AI-lab stakes and cloud deals (Amazon: Anthropic, OpenAI; Microsoft: OpenAI), leases not yet commenced (Microsoft $364.6B, Meta $355.7B, Amazon $164.9B), purchase commitments (Meta $454.5B) | Chip counts by vendor; which neocloud sits inside the lease totals. Microsoft doesn’t name Anthropic or the $250B OpenAI Azure deal; Google doesn’t name Anthropic | Company blogs and keynotes, press |
| AI labs | Anthropic’s S-1 now names every major compute and financing counterparty with dollar commitments. OpenAI files nothing | OpenAI’s contracts | Counterparty filings, press |
| Neoclouds (listed) | CoreWeave, Nebius, IREN, TeraWulf and Cipher file 8-Ks or 6-Ks for big contracts and name their customers | Exact GPU counts per contract | Their own releases |
| Private neoclouds | Nothing filed (Lambda, Nscale, Fluidstack) | Everything | Counterparty filings (now the Anthropic S-1), press |
Deals known only from the press stay in the ledger, tagged with Source type “Press report” and a Filing check saying so; amounts known only from the press are marked “Reported” and drawn dashed.
What it shows (as of 2026-11-12)
Nvidia customer financing, Q2 FY27
| Item | US$B |
|---|---|
| Guarantees, max gross | 108.5 |
| AI cloud agreements | 36.0 |
| Data center leases for third parties | 20.0 |
| Customer financing total | 164.5 |
| As % of Q2 FY27 revenue | 171% |
| Receivable days (DSO) | 60 |
Loops back to Nvidia: 16 with default filters
| Route | Steps |
|---|---|
| Nvidia → OpenAI → Oracle → Nvidia | $30B equity, $300B cloud, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → OpenAI → Microsoft → Nvidia | $30B equity, $250B Azure, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → OpenAI → Amazon → Nvidia | $30B equity, $138B AWS (2 deals), GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → OpenAI → CoreWeave → Nvidia | $30B equity, $22.4B cloud, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → Anthropic → Google → Nvidia | $10B equity, $121.3B Google Cloud, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → Anthropic → SpaceX → Nvidia | $10B equity, $120.5B SpaceXAI compute, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → Anthropic → Amazon → Nvidia | $10B equity, $110B AWS, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → Anthropic → Microsoft → Nvidia | $10B equity, $47.2B Azure, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → Anthropic → Nscale → Nvidia | $10B equity, $44.6B GPU services, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → Anthropic → Lambda → Nvidia | $10B equity, $41.3B GPU services, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → Anthropic → Nvidia | $10B equity, 2.6 GW |
| Nvidia → CoreWeave → Nvidia | $6.3B capacity backstop + $2.25B equity, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → SpaceX → Nvidia | $2B equity in xAI (press), GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → Nebius → Nvidia | $2B pre-funded warrants, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → Lambda → Nvidia | $1.5B lease-back of its own GPUs + equity, GPU purchases |
| Nvidia → Nscale → Nvidia | equity (undisclosed), GPU purchases |
Key reads
- Anthropic is now the best-documented buyer of compute in the chain. OpenAI’s ~$730B in the ledger rests mostly on press and announcements; Anthropic’s S-1 shows $900.9B of committed spend (purchase commitments, leases and leases not yet commenced), plus $150B to $175B more with no fixed price. The named contracts in the ledger total $685B+.
- Every major Anthropic supplier also funds it. Broadcom (rent financing of up to $42B, plus $1.0B equity), Google ($33B equity, plus backstopping its TeraWulf leases), Amazon ($33B), Microsoft ($5B), Nvidia ($10B), AMD (up to $5B), Micron and TSMC. Total funding received or committed: $130.5B.
- Anthropic’s Nvidia exposure runs through operators. It doesn’t buy Nvidia systems directly. It rents them from SpaceXAI, Nscale, Lambda and Azure, $253.6B in total. Nvidia’s 2.6 GW figure is that capacity, counted from Nvidia’s side.
- OpenAI is the other hub. Nvidia put $30B into OpenAI’s March 2026 round (not named in Nvidia’s 10-Q, but consistent with $31.0B of new private holdings in the half). OpenAI has committed over $700B to clouds that buy Nvidia hardware.
- Nvidia’s largest single exposure is credit support: the $105B SB Energy guarantee behind OpenAI’s 20-year leases in Ohio.
- Vendor financing is now standard:
- AMD pays customers in warrants: OpenAI and Meta, 160M shares each, both tied to 6 GW.
- Broadcom lends Anthropic the rent on Broadcom’s own equipment.
- OpenAI lends Cerebras $1.0B.
- Google guarantees its customers’ and investee’s leases (Fluidstack at TeraWulf and Cipher; Anthropic at TeraWulf).
- Strain signals to watch:
- Lambda missed its facility deadline, so $34.9B of Anthropic’s Lambda contract is terminable.
- SpaceXAI contracts can be cancelled on 90 days’ notice after early 2027.
- $186.2B of Anthropic’s obligations depend on counterparties securing financing, facilities or approvals.
- Microsoft is consolidating its neocloud partners (CNBC, Nov 2026).
Caveats
- Hyperscaler and AI cloud purchases of Nvidia hardware are only disclosed in aggregate (FY26: Hyperscale $106B, ACIE $88B), so those arrows are drawn thin as “undisclosed”.
- Headline deal values differ in kind: minimum commitments, “up to” amounts, undrawn facilities, lease rent and stake values aren’t comparable cash flows. The Amount basis column says which.
- Bubbles are sized by total deal value until every company has a valuation. Fill the yellow cells in the Companies tab from BBG to switch to valuation sizing.
- Superseded deals are hidden by default: Nvidia’s $100B OpenAI letter of intent, Anthropic’s first 1 GW Nvidia deal, and the 3.5 GW Broadcom press figure (folded into the S-1 lease row).
Next additions
- A chip-flow view, by vendor and lab: how many Nvidia, TPU, Trainium and AMD chips each lab runs, as a Sankey from chip vendor to operator to lab. The Anthropic S-1 now gives dollar commitments per operator, which helps.
- Nvidia’s wider equity portfolio (13 public and 229 private companies per the Fall 2026 roadshow).
- Valuations for every company, so bubble size reflects market value.
- Re-check when filings land: Anthropic’s 424B4 (final IPO price), CoreWeave’s Q3 10-Q, the Hugging Face closing.
Related: NVDA - Primer · AI Compute Value Chain · 01 AI Compute & Semiconductor Supply Chain